# Climate Prescience

> Independent climate science from Aotearoa New Zealand, founded by Dr Nathanael Melia. Climate Prescience provides NZM1K climate projections, tailored analysis and scientific interpretation for consulting, risk and planning teams.

## Website

- [Climate Prescience](https://www.climateprescience.com/): Company, science, services, founder and contact information.
- [NZM1K](https://www.climateprescience.com/#nzm1k): A national 1 km projection grid and 46 global–regional model chains spanning 18 global models and six regional configurations. Core pathways are SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are also available with different model coverage.
- [Interactive climate explorer](https://www.climateprescience.com/#explore): Hot days (Tmax >25°C) and very hot days (Tmax >30°C), plus annual rainfall and wettest-day rainfall (Rx1day). Explore changes in hot-day counts, rainfall change, agreement on rainfall direction, and variability change (SD as a percentage of reference rainfall). The viewer retains 274,834 native land cells.
- [Map methods and interpretation](https://www.climateprescience.com/#methodology): Periods, reference definitions, scales and scientific limitations.
- [Research](https://www.climateprescience.com/#research): Selected publications and research funding.
- [Science Media Centre contributions](https://www.climateprescience.com/#media): Selected expert commentary.
- [Commission work](https://www.climateprescience.com/#collaborate): Project-specific data, analysis and interpretation.
- [Accessibility](https://www.climateprescience.com/accessibility): Accessibility approach, supported interactions and known limitations.
- [Privacy](https://www.climateprescience.com/privacy): Contact data and optional analytics.

## Scientific context

The 25-fold detail comparison describes grid-cell density: twenty-five 1 km cells occupy the area of one 5 km cell. Model chains share components and are not independent predictions. Ensemble agreement is not a probability or a statistical significance test. A climate grid cell is not a property assessment. Rx1day is not a return-period design storm. The NZM1K methods manuscript has been submitted for peer review.

The rainfall change maps compare 2080–2099 under SSP3-7.0 with each NZM1K chain's own modelled 2015–2024 reference. The variability change view shows the climate-variability standard deviation divided by reference rainfall, combining SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. It uses cmocean rain in 2.5-percentage-point bands from 0% to 50%; it is a measure of local annual variation, not future-minus-past mean change. See the map methods for its distinct reference definition. Mean rainfall change uses cmocean tarn with 2.5-percentage-point bands on the shared −25% to +25% diverging scale. Values outside each displayed scale use its endpoint colours. Broad spatial patterns are available as text descriptions beside the maps.

Temperature maps show the median of 46 model-chain changes in period-mean annual threshold-exceedance counts. They compare 2041–2060 or 2080–2099 with the same chain and pathway’s 2015–2024 reference under SSP1-2.6 or SSP3-7.0. Thresholds are strictly greater than 25°C and 30°C. Incomplete years are treated as NA and omitted from period means; native model calendars are retained. The cmocean thermal palette uses one-day colour intervals and a shared scale per threshold: 0–60 days/year for hot days and 0–30 for very hot days. Values above each display cap use the top colour; the source data are unchanged. The homepage defaults to hot days, SSP3-7.0, 2080–2099.

## Data access

The website is a visual introduction. Underlying NZM1K scientific datasets and project outputs are licensed or supplied by arrangement; no raw-data download is offered here. This file provides navigation and context, not a data licence or additional reuse rights. Contact nathanael@climateprescience.com for project enquiries.

## Research connections

End users include MBIE, MfE, NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi, DOC, MPI, Fire and Emergency New Zealand, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment and Emergency Management Otago. Collaborators include Victoria University of Wellington’s School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences and School of Economics and Finance; Aon; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand; MBIE; the University of Canterbury; Earth Sciences New Zealand; and the Bioeconomy Science Institute. These connections span Climate Prescience and Nathanael Melia’s wider research.